By Art Janse Van Rensberg, Executive: New Business Sales at Frontline Research Group
As we stand on the cusp of February 2026, the sub-Saharan African (SSA) beverage industry is undergoing a metamorphosis that is bringing with it a heightened sense of expectation. In the world of the Lunar zodiac, we are transitioning from the Year of the Wood Snake (a period of contemplation, strategic introspection, and the “shedding” of old skins) into the Year of the Fire Horse (a period of boldness, chaos and progress).
For the beverage manufacturers, bottlers, and distributors operating across this continent, the metaphor could not be more apt. If 2025 was about the quiet, calculated repositioning of global titans, 2026 is set to be a year of, rapid progress, and high-stakes disruption. In this “beverage battlefield,” the winners will be those who can harness, and act, on trusted market intelligence, to make fast, bold decisions, to be quickest out the gates.
The Year of the Wood Snake: Shedding the Old Skin
Continuing with the Zodiac metaphor, the last 18 months have seen the “Snake” at work across Africa’s markets. In traditional lore, the Snake year is one of shedding what no longer fits, to prepare for a new cycle of growth. In the corporate world of beverages, this took the form of massive, structural re-franchising and portfolio rationalization.
We witnessed some of the most significant mergers and acquisitions in the history of the continent. Most notably, Coca-Cola HBC’s landmark acquisition of a controlling stake in Coca-Cola Beverages Africa (CCBA), finalized in late 2025, signalled a monumental shift. By consolidating 14 African markets, including the powerhouse economies of South Africa, Kenya, and Ethiopia, Coca-Cola HBC has effectively unified two-thirds of the continent’s Coca-Cola volume. This was “shedding” in its purest form: The Coca-Cola Company divesting from direct bottling to focus on brand equity, while HBC stepped into the role of a hyper-scaled, beverage partner.
Meanwhile, Varun Beverages (VBL), the world’s second-largest PepsiCo bottler, completed its integration of South Africa’s The Beverage Company (BevCo), signalling that the rivalry between the “Red” and “Blue” camps is no longer just a North American story, it is now also a localized, African duel. Added to this is VBL’s announced acquisition of South Africa’s Twizza Proprietary Limited, for a reported $125m, again indicating battle lines being drawn on the continent.
Similar activity has been witnessed in the alcoholic sector. Diageo’s historic sale of its majority stake in East African Breweries Ltd (EABL) to Japan’s Asahi Group Holdings for over $2.3 billion represented a strategic retreat for one giant and a bold, first-of-its-kind entry for another. This is added to previous sales of majority stakes in beer bottlers namely, 80.4% stake in Guinness Ghana Breweries to Castel Group, 54.4% stake in Seychelles Breweries Limited to Phoenix Beverages added to the 2024 sale of 58% stake in Guinness Nigeria PLC to Tolarum Group while remembering the 2023 sale of Guinness Cameroon S.A. to Castel Group.
When looking back to 2023, we also saw the merger of Heineken, Distell and Nambian Breweries Limited to form Heineken Beverages in a move that changed the landscape for both entities. Added to this is Varun Beverages debut into alcohol with their Carlsberg Africa distribution deal and we have a vastly different landscape to what we had a mere 3 years ago.
These moves were not merely transactions, they were contemplative strategic manoeuvres, clearing the decks and preparing for a more volatile, high-speed environment.
2026: The Year of the Fire Horse and the Beverage Battlefield
As the calendar turns to the Year of the Fire Horse, the energy shifts from the internal to the external. In Chinese astrology, the Fire Horse is rare, occurring only once every 60 years. It is characterized by double “fire” energy, representing passion, visibility, and rapid fire innovation.
For the SSA beverage industry, this means the “battlefield” is now fully active. Why is Africa the chosen ground? The numbers tell the story. While global markets face stagnation, the Middle East and Africa alcoholic beverage market is projected to reach $164.82 billion in 2026*, growing at a healthy Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of nearly 7%. In the non-alcoholic space, the growth is even more aggressive, with double-digit value increases in South Africa and Nigeria driven by a younger, more urbanized population.
The Dynamics of the 2026 Battlefield:
- The Rise of the “Total Beverage” Portfolio: The lines between alcoholic and non-alcoholic are blurring. With the aforementioned foray of Varun beverages in alcoholic beverages, with Castel Group enjoying both an alcoholic and a NARTD portfolio, with Coca-Cola partnering with alcohol brands i.e. Jack Daniel’s and Coca-Cola RTDs in South Africa, coupled with traditional alcohol titans producing no or low alcohol brands, we are seeing the beginning of a trend that will explode in 2026. Companies are no longer “beer companies” or “soda companies”; they are “thirst-quenchers” competing for every “share of throat.”
- The New Entrants: With Asahi now controlling the EABL engine and VBL scaling PepsiCo’s footprint, to name just a few, the traditional duopolies are under fire. These new players are not just bringing capital; they are bringing different operational philosophies, particularly in supply chain efficiency and digital distribution.
- The Premium vs. Value Divergence: 2025 data showed a 10% value growth in South African alcohol sales despite only a 3% volume increase*. This indicates a “premiumization” trend where consumers drink “less but better.” However, in 2026, the Fire Horse energy will also demand “speed to value” for the emerging middle class who are feeling the pinch of inflation but refuse to compromise on brand status.
Primed for Disruption: The Mandate for 2026
The Fire Horse is a wild spirit; it cannot be tamed by outdated principles or “the way we’ve always done it” philosophies. Beverage manufacturers must be primed for disruption across three key pillars:
Channel Disruption: The traditional “spaza shop” and “duka” are becoming digitized. B2B e-commerce platforms are no longer “optional extras”; they are the primary arteries of the market. In 2026, the “battle” will be won in the last mile, and leveraging on-the-ground intelligence to ensure that the cold fridge is never empty will be critical.
Product Disruption: The focus on ‘healthier’ options will only grow, especially in the younger generations, which is a vital market for driving trial. The “Better-for-You” (BFY) movement is moving from a niche trend to a mainstream requirement. We are seeing a surge in functional beverages, drinks with added electrolytes, probiotics, etc. and a massive uptick in low or non-alcoholic spirits and beers, which grew at an astonishing 25-80%* in various SSA segments last year.
Operational Disruption: The M&A activity of the last 18 months has created behemoths. To compete, smaller players and even the giants themselves must be agile. The market landscape is forever changing and the ability to pivot quickly to market conditions is going to become a survival strategy. Regular market intelligence through census and landscape analysis is going to become a necessity in this evolving world.
The Final Word: Intelligence as the Rider
The Fire Horse provides the power, but without a skilled rider, that power leads to a crash. In the seismic shifts of 2026, the “Rider” is Market Intelligence.
The complexity of the SSA market, with its varying regulatory environments, currency fluctuations in Nigeria and Ethiopia, and hyper local consumer preferences, means that “gut feeling” is a recipe for disaster. To stay on top of the battlefield, manufacturers and bottlers need:
Robust Market Tracking: Ongoing visibility into off-trade and on-trade performance including market share, distribution and pricing.
Predictive Analytics: Moving beyond “what happened” to “what will happen” when a competitor like Asahi drops a new premium lager in Nairobi.
Consumer Sentiment Mining: Understanding the “why” behind the shift toward non-alcoholic options or the sudden popularity of specific local flavours i.e. fruit flavoured beers.
As we transition to this Fire Horse year, the message is clear: The skin has been shed. The titans have repositioned. The battlefield is set. The only way to navigate the thundering speed of 2026 is to ensure your strategy is anchored in the most accurate, robust data available.
The Horse is running. Are you leading the charge, or are you out of the photo finish frame? For more information contact Art Janse Van Rensberg, Frontline Research Group, on tel +27 (0)86 999 0407 or mobile +27 (0)71 889 9080 or art@frontlineresearchgroup.com
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